Direct and indirect consumption activities drive distinct urban-rural inequalities in air pollution-related mortality in China.

Household consumption in China is associated with substantial PM2.5 pollution, through activities directly (i.e., fuel use) and/or indirectly (i.e., consumption of goods and services) causing pollutant emissions. Urban and rural households exhibit different consumption preferences and living areas, thus their contributions to and suffering from air pollution could differ. Assessing this contrast is crucial for comprehending the environmental impacts of the nation's ongoing urbanization process. Here we quantify Chinese urban and rural households' contributions to ambient PM2.5 pollution and the health risks they suffer from, by integrating economic, atmospheric, and health models and/or datasets. The national premature deaths related to long-term exposure to PM2.5 pollution contributed by total household consumption are estimated to be 1.1 million cases in 2015, among which 56% are urban households and 44% are rural households. For pollution contributed indirectly, urban households, especially in developed provinces, tend to bear lower mortality risks compared with the portions of deaths or pollution they contribute. The opposite results are true for direct pollution. With China's rapid urbanization process, without adequate reduction in emission intensity, the increased indirect pollution-associated premature deaths could largely offset that avoided by reduced direct pollution, and the indirect pollution-associated urban-rural inequalities might become severer. Developing pollution mitigation strategies from both production and consumption sides could help with reducing pollution-related mortality and associated urban-rural inequality.

Inequality in historical transboundary anthropogenic PM2.5 health impacts.

Atmospheric transport of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), the leading environmental risk factor for public health, is estimated to exert substantial transboundary effects at present. During the past several decades, human-produced pollutant emissions have undergone drastic and regionally distinctive changes, yet it remains unclear about the resulting global transboundary health impacts. Here we show that between 1950 and 2014, global anthropogenic PM2.5 has led to 185.7 million premature deaths cumulatively, including about 14% from transboundary pollution. Among four country groups at different affluence levels, on a basis of per capita contribution to transboundary mortality, a richer region tends to exert severer cumulative health externality, with the poorest bearing the worst net externality after contrasting import and export of pollution mortality. The temporal changes in transboundary mortality and cross-regional inequality are substantial. Effort to reduce PM2.5-related transboundary mortality should seek international collaborative strategies that account for historical responsibility and inequality.

Considerable Unaccounted Local Sources of NOx Emissions in China Revealed from Satellite.

High-resolution (e.g., 5 km) emission data of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) provide localized knowledge of pollution sources for targeted regulations, yet such data are lacking or inaccurate over most regions at present. Here we improve our PHLET-based inversion method to derive NOx emissions in China at a 5-km resolution in summer 2019, based on the TROPOMI-POMINO satellite product of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns. With low computational costs, our inversion explicitly accounts for the effects of horizontal transport and nonlinear chemistry. We find numerous small-to-medium sources related to minor roads and small human settlements at relatively low affluence levels, in addition to clear emission signals along major transportation lines, consistent with road line density and Tencent location data. Many small-to-medium sources and transportation emissions are unclear or missing in the spatial distributions of four widely used emission inventories. Our emissions offer a unique reference for targeted emission control.

Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions.

In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.

Air pollution exposure associates with increased risk of neonatal jaundice.

Clinical experience suggests increased incidences of neonatal jaundice when air quality worsens, yet no studies have quantified this relationship. Here we reports investigations in 25,782 newborns showing an increase in newborn's bilirubin levels, the indicator of neonatal jaundice risk, by 0.076 (95% CI: 0.027-0.125), 0.029 (0.014-0.044) and 0.009 (95% CI: 0.002-0.016) mg/dL per µg/m3 for PM2.5 exposure in the concentration ranges of 10-35, 35-75 and 75-200 µg/m3, respectively. The response is 0.094 (0.077-0.111) and 0.161 (0.07-0.252) mg/dL per µg/m3 for SO2 exposure at 10-15 and above 15 µg/m3, respectively, and 0.351 (0.314-0.388) mg/dL per mg/m3 for CO exposure. Bilirubin levels increase linearly with exposure time between 0 and 48 h. Positive relationship between maternal exposure and newborn bilirubin level is also quantitated. The jaundice-pollution relationship is not affected by top-of-atmosphere incident solar irradiance and atmospheric visibility. Improving air quality may therefore be key to lowering the neonatal jaundice risk.

Clean air for some: Unintended spillover effects of regional air pollution policies.

China has enacted a number of ambitious pollution control policies to mitigate air pollution in urban areas. Unintended side effects of these policies to other environmental policy arenas and regions have largely been ignored. To bridge this gap, we use a multiregional input-output model in combination with an atmospheric chemical transport model to simulate clean air policy scenarios and evaluate their environmental impacts on primary PM2.5 and secondary precursor emissions, as well as CO2 emissions and water consumption, in the target region and spillover effects to other regions. Our results show that the reduction in primary PM2.5 and secondary precursor emissions in the target regions comes at the cost of increasing emissions especially in neighboring provinces. Similarly, co-benefits of lower CO2 emissions and reduced water consumption in the target region are achieved at the expense of higher impacts elsewhere, through outsourcing production to less developed regions in China.

Updated Hourly Emissions Factors for Chinese Power Plants Showing the Impact of Widespread Ultralow Emissions Technology Deployment.

Nationwide severe air pollution has prompted China to mandate the adoption of ultralow emissions (ULE) control technologies at all of its coal-fired power plants by 2020. This process has accelerated greatly since 2014 and, combined with operational adjustments related to overcapacity, has reduced the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM). Yet the quantitative understanding of ULE benefits is poor. Using detailed emissions data from 38 units at 17 power plants, corresponding to 10 combinations of ULE technologies representative of the Chinese power sector, we show that emissions factors for NO x, SO2, and PM are up to 1-2 orders of magnitude lower after ULE retrofitting. The effectiveness in cutting emissions shows a large spread across the various ULE technology combinations, providing an opportunity to choose the most efficient, economically viable technology (or a combination of technologies) in the future. The temporal variations in emissions at hourly resolution reveal the effects of power plant load on emissions, an increasingly important factor given that power plants are not operated at full capacity. These data will be useful in efforts to understand the evolving state of air quality in China and can also provide a basis for benchmarking state-of-the-art air pollution control equipment globally.

Environmental taxation and regional inequality in China.

In order to combat environmental pollution, China enacted the Environmental Protection Tax Law in early 2018. Yet the impacts of the environmental tax on individual regions with different socioeconomic statuses, which are crucial for social justice and public acceptance, remain unclear. Based on a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) table and a nationally regulated tax payment calculation method, this study analyzes the distributional impacts of an environmental tax based upon province's consumption from both inter-provincial and rural-urban aspects. The national tax revenue based on the current levy mechanism is estimated to be only one seventh of the economic loss from premature mortality caused by ambient particulate matter (PM2.5). The taxation may slightly alleviate urban-rural inequality but may not be helpful with reducing inter-provincial inequality. We further analyze two alternative levy mechanisms. If each province imposes taxes to products it consumes (rather than produces, as in the current mechanism), with the tax rate linearly dependent on its per capita consumption expenditure, this would moderately increase the national tax revenue and significantly reduce inter-provincial inequality. To better compensate for the economic costs of air pollution and reduce regional inequality, it would be beneficial to increase the tax rate nationwide and implement a levy mechanism based on provincially differentiated levels of consumption and economic status.

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade.

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions, air quality and health have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.